Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MKR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 885.221202 1008.812381 1149.891927 1324.264169 1535.958534 1787.199151 2.111826e+03
2024-10-20 685.176579 837.625693 1029.478525 1293.996220 1658.104163 2155.819470 2.914355e+03
2024-10-27 576.916288 732.874648 940.131288 1244.684282 1697.354517 2375.273451 3.533394e+03
2024-11-03 529.439580 696.224711 929.187366 1292.695283 1875.047797 2832.218899 4.681730e+03
2024-11-10 487.825032 659.536974 909.286060 1319.008925 2019.207643 3270.357020 5.988222e+03
2024-11-17 451.303923 624.452991 885.045351 1331.458524 2139.416003 3698.664533 7.494599e+03
2024-11-24 414.660421 584.418755 847.014864 1313.072462 2198.157173 4024.097706 8.956000e+03
2024-12-01 392.678217 564.133016 837.089432 1340.174429 2347.074998 4586.559702 1.143052e+04
2024-12-08 377.535351 552.729796 839.745178 1389.399018 2551.222098 5353.351165 1.521836e+04
2024-12-15 359.671872 534.957564 829.133764 1411.289113 2702.125311 6053.084381 1.958302e+04
2024-12-22 339.223688 510.952510 804.809001 1402.113270 2780.377309 6591.682397 2.403046e+04
2024-12-29 326.248219 498.372917 799.394044 1430.185371 2954.575421 7501.203473 3.191063e+04
2025-01-05 303.672049 468.254084 760.315341 1385.101082 2943.916084 7849.994476 3.758280e+04
2025-01-12 284.574719 442.973135 728.247481 1351.544650 2959.011308 8316.223107 4.554566e+04
2025-01-19 265.326393 415.969563 690.335922 1299.569324 2911.638742 8533.866872 5.236971e+04
2025-01-26 259.414783 412.409183 697.258430 1350.396639 3170.682147 10149.863910 8.080970e+04
2025-02-02 251.454578 404.435411 694.579322 1378.313554 3372.033044 11702.808647 1.218748e+05
2025-02-09 242.656708 394.227936 686.354811 1391.517216 3532.764086 13225.399799 1.829500e+05
2025-02-16 231.537810 378.891678 666.204656 1372.015124 3580.561041 14208.920458 2.510000e+05
2025-02-23 225.522264 372.854187 664.919300 1400.764759 3806.873133 16512.892605 4.478677e+05
2025-03-02 221.770617 370.887960 672.054155 1453.012207 4140.980658 20039.354776 1.046043e+06
2025-03-09 215.907996 364.370338 668.679887 1476.258799 4375.217809 23277.266830 2.556004e+06
2025-03-16 207.997380 353.294418 654.283928 1466.513431 4473.599448 25595.378818 5.992847e+06